zahrcast
zahrcast
Zahrcast LLC forecasts the results of ongoing oncology trials with Sia, its Bayesian forecasting platform. Karim Naguib runs it.
Karim Naguib runs zahrcast. At AstraZeneca he worked on patient-level models of tumor dynamics used to support Phase 3 initiation decisions. He is a coauthor of the manuscript below, which covers the ES-SCLC study. Before pharma he worked in development economics, running field experiments in Kenya and South Asia.
karimn.co has the full background and publication record.
The manuscript reports the ES-SCLC forecasting study, including the full leave-future-out results and calibration checks. arxiv.org/abs/2607.17908.
A first conversation works best when it is about a specific trial: what is enrolled, what is measured, when the decision is due, and what would change if the answer came earlier. No data needs to be shared for that conversation.