zahrcast
case studies

forecasts checked against the observed results

Each case study fits Sia to a target trial at several interim cut-offs, using only the data available at each date, and compares the forecasts with the survival observed at the trial's final data cut.

extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer

Lilly CXCR4 trial

patients
77 in two arms
cut-offs
trial months 4, 11 and 19
borrowed
one historical trial
endpoints
progression-free and overall survival

At trial month 11, with 39 of the 77 patients included, the intervals for median overall survival contained the observed medians in both arms. At trial month 19, the arm B interval for overall survival did not contain the observed median.1

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metastatic colorectal cancer

Amgen PACCE trial

patients
739 in two arms
cut-offs
trial months 6, 15 and 22
borrowed
three historical trials
endpoints
progression-free and overall survival

At trial month 15, with 467 of the 739 patients included, the intervals for median overall survival and median progression-free survival contained the observed medians in both arms. At trial month 22, the intervals for overall survival did not contain the observed medians in either arm.1

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metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

ENTHUSE-33 trial

patients
436 in one arm
cut-offs
trial months 7, 19 and 31, on simulated enrollment
borrowed
two historical trials
endpoints
progression-free and overall survival

At trial month 19, with 257 of the 436 patients included, the interval for median overall survival contained the observed median, and the interval for median progression-free survival was above it.1

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metastatic pancreatic cancer

MPACT trial

patients
403 in one arm
cut-offs
trial months 5, 14 and 24, on simulated enrollment
borrowed
two historical trials
endpoints
progression-free and overall survival

At trial month 14, with 146 of the 403 patients included, the intervals for median overall survival and median progression-free survival contained the observed medians.1

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references
  1. This publication is based on research using information obtained from www.projectdatasphere.org, which is maintained by Project Data Sphere. Neither Project Data Sphere nor the owner(s) of any information from the web site have contributed to, approved or are in any way responsible for the contents of this publication.